BACK PEW: Election winners & losers in WV

By Stephen Baldwin, RealWV

As a recovering politician who has won and lost election night races, I know how stressful it can be for the folks that went through it. Honestly, I think most folks on the ballot are just relieved it’s over come Wednesday morning. 

But for the rest of us, whose lives are impacted by the policies and politics of the winners, it’s time to look behind the numbers into the impact the outcomes of Tuesday’s races will have moving forward. 

Which means it’s time for traditional look at the “winners & losers” of the election. Here we go…

WINNER: Speaker of the House Roger Hanshaw. Yes, his Republican caucus appears to have lost a dozen seats. You might think that would be a bad thing, but I don’t think it is. Not for the Speaker. That means fewer egos to manage during session and fewer bodies in a caucus meeting to butt heads over social issues. Plus, he should still have plenty of votes to keep his position. I’ve always been told by veteran legislators who served in leadership that supermajorities are the hardest to manage. The bigger they are, the more unmanageable. So a slightly smaller supermajority will provide some relief for Speaker Hanshaw. 

LOSER: Del. Shawn Fluharty. I’ve known Shawn for years and respect him deeply. He has thought about a Senate run for some time and pulled the trigger this year. It was a year in which Democrats did well and he ran a very strong campaign. Unfortunately for Shawn, it didn’t work out the way he hoped. But not only did he come up short in his Senate run, he also forfeited the chance to be Whip of a larger Democratic caucus in the House this coming year. I’m sure it stings. He fought the good fight for a long time, but he has lots of fight left in him. I know his future is very bright! 

WINNER: Senate President Randy Smith. Yes, Sen. Smith lost an ally in Anne Charnock, but he also lost a moderate critic in Mike Oliverio, who was defeated by Del. John Williams and will now not be around to question Smith. He also had to be thrilled that Chris Miller was defeated, as the talk of the capitol was that Miller intended to challenge Smith for the Senate presidency. I imagine it will be a contested race once again for the presidency, as it was two years ago, but it appears Smith will still have the votes to hold the gavel. 

WINNER: Babydog. My guess is that Babydog won’t have to travel to Washington, DC, much longer. With the Democrats taking control of Congress and Sen. Jim Justice hankering to be governor again, he very well may be nearing a decision on whether to run for governor in 2028.

LOSER: Gov. Patrick Morrisey. Despite his political action committees spending millions this election cycle, it doesn’t appear he will have a larger faction of Republicans as allies this legislative session. Yet he will be under pressure to get things done as he approaches re-election and a potential looming race with Jim Justice. He’s a fighter, though, and he has deep pockets backing him. I wouldn’t count him out, despite lower approval ratings than his team would like. 

One more thing on Morrisey…it appears that Wood County will send a Democrat to Charleston as delegate. That’s shocking just because of registration numbers which heavily favor Republicans there, but also because of the particular race in question. This was the district where Morrisey ran his own candidate against House Finance Chair Vernon Criss. Criss lost the primary but then waged a write-in campaign that peeled enough Republican votes away from the nominee to allow Democrat Dennie Rempel to win. That one really has to hurt for Morrisey. 

WINNER: Democrats. No, they didn’t put much of a dent in the legislative supermajorities of the Republicans. But they won seats, did better than expected, and every district moved to the left of where they voted in the last two election cycles. That’s a win for a political party that has been on the ropes, to put it mildly, for the last six years. 

WINNER: Republicans. Yes, they lost a few seats. But they held onto their supermajorities and will probably take pride in being a red island surrounded by Democratic officials in surrounding states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The question is whether they will be able to deliver for West Virginia since they will be in the minority federally, for a change. 

WINNER: Women running for office. For some time, Democrats and Republicans alike have decried the low number of women serving in the WV Legislature. Women made inroads towards greater balance last night, winning a number of seats across the state. I think greater balance will do the whole state good. 

WINNER: Checks & balances. I’ve heard from all kinds of folks this week about the election results. Some are thrilled, some are furious, and some are indifferent. I do personally think restoring checks and balances to Washington is a good thing for America. It forces parties and officials to work together. West Virginia could use more of that balance, as well. Democratic dominance in the 20th century wasn’t good for West Virginia; Republican dominance in the 21st century hasn’t been either. Perhaps the balance we now see nationally will come to West Virginia over the next few election cycles. 

That’s the view from the back pew. 

Stephen Baldwin is a Presbyterian pastor and the publisher of RealWV. He is the former WV Senate Minority Leader.